Since the formation of APC – the largest
coalition of political parties in the history of Nigeria, everyone has
impatiently been waiting for their Presidential candidate to be
revealed. There have been all kinds of rumours and permutations by
journalists, inebriated men at beer parlours, and self-appointed
political pundits in the social media.
Most popular of all these rumours is the
Buhari-Tinubu combo. While Buhari is respected as an upright and moral
leader, his presence on the ticket has every tendency to induce some
sort of voter fatigue amongst young electorates. Buhari has tried 3
times and lost in all. You cannot do things the same way and expect
different results. Age is also not on his side. He is 71years old, and
will be 72 by the time the election starts. President Jonathan is
56years old.
While I don’t believe age is the most
important factor to consider when electing a president, APC must take
into cognizance the present youth demographic in Nigeria. With 70% of
Nigerians less than 35years old, how well do you want to sell a 72 year
old president and a 62 year old vice-president to them?
One thing we can never discount is the
influence Buhari has up north. He is the ONLY politician than get
12million votes in the north, without coercing, bribing or intimidating
anyone. He has a cult-following. He is seen as the Messiah. This comes
with good reason because he is the most upright politician in the North.
No one comes close, and people love him to bits. Unfortunately, his
influence is regional.
How Nigerians voted in 2011
It is the humble opinion of this writer
that for APC to win at the first ballot in 2015, they must look away
from Buhari/Tinubu in 2015. The question APC should be asking is: Which current opposition candidate is MARKETABLE to different parts of the country with at least 65% success rate? Dear readers, that candidate is Babatunde Raji Fashola, the current Governor of Lagos state.
Fashola’s candidacy comes with tons of
benefits for APC. Fashola is the main reason the defunct ACN was able to
clear other south west states in 2011. ACN brilliantly sold the
“Fashola dream” to other states in the South West and they were able to
reclaim the entire South west, safe for Ondo state which is in the firm
hands of the progressive Olusegun Mimiko of Labour Party.
Governor Fashola is 50years old. He is
even younger than the President. If and only if Buhari and Tinubu can
drop their ambitions and support this man, then APC will win the
presidential election at the first ballot. All it takes is for Daddy
Buhari to campaign with Fashola around the North. Evidently, President
Jonathan is not so popular in the North, and they will most likely vote
for any candidate apart from the President in 2015.
APC won’t have a hard time selling him to
Nigerians. He is undoubtedly the most popular governor in the country
today. He is the Governor of the most diverse state in the country.
Lagos is home to all. Every ethnic and tribal unit is present in Lagos
state. Lagos is the ONLY state that has successfully halved its poverty
rate in the last decade. Fashola takes credit for 8years out of this.
Furthermore, Lagos already controls 60% of the Nigerian economy.
During my NYSC camp in Jigawa state, my Northern friends use to call me Babatunde “P”ashola.
Just because I shared the same first name as Fashola. I was so shocked
that he was known there. Then it occurred to me that indigenes of other
states reside in Lagos and they all go back home to tell tales of
developments in Lagos.
Like every human being, Fashola is NOT a
saint, he has his flaws. In politics there are no saints, but it is the
duty of every political party to put their best foot forward at all
times. Can we just pause for a bit, and imagine a political debate
between Governor Fashola and President Goodluck Jonathan? It will be
EPIC!
According to the Nigerian constitution,
To become the President of Nigeria, a
candidate MUST have the majority of votes cast, AND win at least 25% of
votes in two-thirds of the states (approximately 25 states)
Governor Fashola is a moderate politician
in the Nigerian context. He is not seen as a bigot. Even though he is a
Muslim, his wife and mother are Christians. He is capable of uniting
the entire nation. He will pull numbers required to hit two-thirds of
the country. He is an excellent administrator. He is very smart and
eloquent enough to represent the country at the world stage. APC needs
to dump every form of zoning sentiments and pick the best man for the
job. Millions of Nigerian youths will rally around Fashola.
Buhari/Tinubu might not win the elections
at the first ballot, and this is not really because they are both
Muslims. It is because youths can’t relate with them. The Nigerian
youths want REAL CHANGE, and unfortunately the likes of Buhari and
Tinubu are not the change agents the youths seek. It is dangerous going
into run-offs against an incumbent president that invariably controls
the Judiciary. Remember the Shagari-Awolowo Supreme Court battle in
1979? Ain’t nobody got time for that!
It is time for Buhari and Tinubu to step
back and be fathers of the party. These two overlords should shelve
their ambitions for the success of the party. Tinubu is a very savvy
politician. He has a special nose for talents, and he is one political
godfather that will NOT endorse an incompetent candidate, and you can
take that to the bank. Buhari is an Enigma up North. They should join
hands to support Fashola, and let history remember them as the leaders
that engineered Nigeria’s Renaissance.
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